基于光谱信息融合的发动机磨损状态监测

光谱分析技术操作简便、快捷, 是发动机磨损状态监测与故障诊断行之有效的主要手段。基于发动机磨损特征及其状态识别框架, 建立了其信息融合系统, 并结合实例, 分别应用磨损量信息融合、磨损率信息融合和磨损量与磨损率联合融合 3种方法, 得到发动机磨损工况的信任区间及其磨损状态。实践证明, 光谱信息融合方法可提高发动机磨损状态的识别率, 是发动机磨损状态监测的理想方法。     

某型火炮复拨器拨动子应力分析及其修复研究

针对某型榴弹炮炮闩复拨器拨动子的磨损情况, 分析了其接触应力的特点并拟合出应力分布曲线, 计算出最大接触应力, 同时对提高复拨器拨动子使用寿命的措施进行了可行性分析。     

非线性评估中权重的敏感性分析

分析了非线性评估中权重的敏感性问题,给出了分析的思路和计算方法,并得出判断权重敏感的方法,定义了多维权重的敏感度,并由算例说明评价值的敏感性和权重的关系.     

寿命周期费用估算中的敏感度分析

针对寿命周期费用估算和分析时存在的费用不确定性,需要对关键参数进行敏感度分析,否则会影响到结果的正确性.通过分析引起费用不确定性的因素,阐述了敏感度分析的内涵和分析步聚.为了验证该方法,举出示例加以说明.认为:敏感度分析的费用估算与分析中的运用,将对合理决策产生重要作用.     

On competitive analysis for polling systems

Polling systems have been widely studied, however most of these studies focus on polling systems with renewal processes for arrivals and random variables for service times. There is a need driven by practical applications to study polling systems with arbitrary arrivals (not restricted to time-varying or in batches) and revealed service time upon a job's arrival. To address that need, our work considers a polling system with generic setting and for the first time provides the worst-case analysis for online scheduling policies in this system. We provide conditions for the existence of constant competitive ratios, and competitive lower bounds for general scheduling policies in polling systems. Our work also bridges the queueing and scheduling communities by proving the competitive ratios for several well-studied policies in the queueing literature, such as cyclic policies with exhaustive, gated or l-limited service disciplines for polling systems.     

Changing the paradigm: Simulation,now a method of first resort

Decades ago, simulation was famously characterized as a “method of last resort,” to which analysts should turn only “when all else fails.” In those intervening decades, the technologies supporting simulation—computing hardware, simulation‐modeling paradigms, simulation software, design‐and‐analysis methods—have all advanced dramatically. We offer an updated view that simulation is now a very appealing option for modeling and analysis. When applied properly, simulation can provide fully as much insight, with as much precision as desired, as can exact analytical methods that are based on more restrictive assumptions. The fundamental advantage of simulation is that it can tolerate far less restrictive modeling assumptions, leading to an underlying model that is more reflective of reality and thus more valid, leading to better decisions. Published 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 293–303, 2015     

基于BP神经网络的极移预报*

为了提高地球定向参数极移的预报精度,建立了一个极移数据预报模型。利用傅里叶分析研究插值基础序列的周期特性,验证了基础序列重采样的可行性,提取插值基础序列数据的趋势项,利用多输入-单输出BP神经网络建模预报不同跨度的残差序列,合并趋势项和残差序列得到最终的极移预报。预报结果表明,选取合适的插值基础序列得到的预报极移精度较高,此BP神经网络能够有效地应用于地球定向参数极移的预报。     

Optimal and asymptotically optimal policies for assemble‐to‐order n‐ and W‐systems

We consider two specially structured assemble‐to‐order (ATO) systems—the N‐ and W‐systems—under continuous review, stochastic demand, and nonidentical component replenishment leadtimes. Using a hybrid approach that combines sample‐path analysis, linear programming, and the tower property of conditional expectation, we characterize the optimal component replenishment policy and common‐component allocation rule, present comparative statics of the optimal policy parameters, and show that some commonly used heuristic policies can lead to significant optimality loss. The optimality results require certain symmetry in the cost parameters. In the absence of this symmetry, we show that, for systems with high demand volume, the asymptotically optimal policy has essentially the same structure; otherwise, the optimal policies have no clear structure. For these latter systems, we develop heuristic policies and show their effectiveness. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 617–645, 2015     

BP神经网络在极移预报中的应用

为了提高地球定向参数极移的预报精度,建立了一个极移数据预报模型。利用傅里叶分析研究插值基础序列的周期特性,验证了基础序列重采样的可行性,提取插值基础序列数据的趋势项,利用多输入-单输出反向传播(Back Propagation,BP)神经网络建模预报不同跨度的残差序列,合并趋势项和残差序列得到最终的极移预报。预报结果表明,选取合适的插值基础序列得到的预报极移精度较高,此BP神经网络能够有效地应用于地球定向参数极移的预报。     

国内生存分析在可靠性数据分析中的应用进展

针对可靠性数据分析中遇到的小样本、异总体、删失和截尾问题,引入现代统计学的重要分支——生存分析理论,分别从参数生存分析模型、非参数生存分析模型和半参数生存分析模型3个方面分析了国内生存分析在可靠性数据分析中的研究现状与应用进展。